It is a pleasure to report that the China Ocean Group Development Limited (HKG:8047) is up 34% in the last quarter. But only the myopic could ignore the astounding decline over three years. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 83% in that time. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It’s a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it’s worth keeping in mind there’s more to life than money, anyway.
The recent uptick of 32% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let’s take a lot at historical fundamentals.
Given that China Ocean Group Development didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because it’s hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over the last three years, China Ocean Group Development’s revenue dropped 28% per year. That’s definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. And as you might expect the share price has been weak too, dropping at a rate of 22% per year. We prefer leave it to clowns to try to catch falling knives, like this stock. It’s worth remembering that investors call buying a steeply falling share price ‘catching a falling knife’ because it is a dangerous pass time.
The company’s revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
This free interactive report on China Ocean Group Development’s balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that China Ocean Group Development shareholders are down 58% for the year. Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 3.6%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 4 warning signs with China Ocean Group Development (at least 1 which doesn’t sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
But note: China Ocean Group Development may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.